Eating Crow with a side of Humble Pie!

Dear friends, colleagues, researchers, and administrators that have been contacted to explore this scenario…

A location has been found for the candidate event (+57 minutes) that is consistent with all of the hydrophones that detected it, including Scott Reef.  It is West of the Maldives at 4.65N 66.62E, far from the 7th Arc and in a seismic area on Carlsberg Ridge as the Curtin researchers deduced last year.

Early in this analysis, the Scott Reef triangulation calculations showed locations that were incompatible with any 7th Arc crossing, and the two bearings using HA01 and RCS pointed to different locations just off the NE coast of Australia. While finalizing the error calculations, a nagging concern for where the Scott Reef event might have been caused a more careful calculation using the accurate method developed for plotting the map points.

Embarrassing as it is to find such a flaw and put this analysis on hold, it does show the accuracy of long baseline triangulations. The resulting region of the event at distance of some 6500km from the hydrophones is still likely within a narrow triangle about 10 km wide.

It is hoped that CTBTO and IMOS remain willing to provide acoustic data for further analysis. There are large timing windows that have not been analyzed for a late implosion event. The infrasound at Cocos Island will be a valuable lead for narrowing the search path if the passing flight can be detected.

Many thanks to all for your patience and curiosity.  Special thanks to LANL, and to Dr Alec Duncan at Curtin who entertained the possibility of an error while graciously providing supporting technical details with helpful explanations.

Now I owe everyone a beer!

— Ed Anderson